Man versus board – the case of OpenAI

There are things we know that we know and – among the other logically possible recursive combinations of knowing and not knowing (famously systematized by the great philosopher Donald Rumsfeld) – there are things we know that we don’t know (a.k.a. known unknowns).

We know that we don’t know a lot about the actual background, motivations, conflicts of character, human drama behind what happened over the last few days at the fastest growing company in the Silicon Valley called OpenAI.

What we know for sure however is that these are events of historical magnitude in the tech industry.

What happened:

• On a Friday (best time for firing someone if you want it to be a killing punch) 17th of November 2023 the OpenAI board announced that they fired the company’s CEO and co-founder Sam Altman, explaining that:

Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.

OpenAI

• Later that day, another co-founder, Greg Brockman, announced his resignation.
• Over the weekend, drama unfolded: More and more OpenAI staff members threatened their resignation and demanded that the board resign and revise their decision setting a deadline for Saturday.
• The deadline was missed by the board while a growing number of OpenAI employees, including designated interim CEO Mira Murati, showed their solidarity with Altman and Brockman in a message that went viral on Social Media (mainly X) “OpenAI is nothing without its people“, sometimes just with a heart emoji (❤️) that said more than words.
• On Sunday the revolution kept spreading, more and more employees announced their dissent culminating in an open letter signed by 505 of 700 employees.
• There were confusing messages from the board such as being “in principle” ready to resign while at the same time appointing yet another CEO.
• By Monday it had become clear that there was a third player had emerged from the fog of war: Microsoft’s Satya Nadella had turned the chaos into one of the biggest opportunities in tech history and pulled not only Altman and Brockman but the majority of OpenAI employees over to their side with an “acqui-hire” offer.
• The end result seems to be – after the dust has settled – a huge win for Satya Nadella’s Microsoft thanks to his “poker move for the ages“.

What we don’t really know

How much of the drama was due to:

• Structural complexities of how the company was set up with a nonprofit parent controlling a for profit entity?
• Leadership errors and wrong decisions?
• Miscommunication on all levels?
• Relationship problems among naturally intelligent and emotional humans?
• Actual or pretended “trust violations” (whatever that means concretely)?
• Serious ethical concerns about AI putting humanity at risk if it is not slowed down (decels / doomers vs accelerationists)?
• Intrigue, conspiracy behind the scenes (Microsoft taking over the world for sinister reasons as some have guessed)? 🤷‍♂️

We know that we don’t know what is behind the drama. Without first hand knowledge we can only speculate or guess. And even if we had such knowledge, the answer would most likely still be complex and not mono-causal or straightforward.

What is relatively clear:

• The most promising company in the most promising field of tech has been brought to the verge of total collapse without prior warning over a weekend with the potential of destroying billions of dollars in value in just a few days for investors and employees.
• We live in exciting times not only politically but also in terms of business, work, technology.
• Whether OpenAI will survive – and if so, how -, time will tell.

WWTPAD (What would the Pragmatic Agilist do)

• Stay calm (always), avoid drawing premature conclusions and speculating about things you should know that we don’t really know.
• If you work in or with any tech company, be prepared and be aware that these kind of dramas happen everywhere and can hit everyone without warning. The difference of the OpenAI case is that it happened in front of everyone’s eyes and in public.
• If you build or lead a company in today’s tech environment, expect that knowledge workers on all levels will not just take board or top management decisions as divine judgement and follow along like in the 1950s. There is a spirit of democracy stirring with all consequences (good, chaotic, dangerous) inside startups and corporations.
• Understand the impact of this development for the whole tech industry and beyond. Generative AI built around large language models (LLM) – with Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) as its still hypothetical culmination point – is the one disruptive technology of our time that has the potential to change the future of work and society in ways that are not completely predictable.
• If you are working in AI as a creator, developer, founder who uses the APIs and services of OpenAI – check your robustness against these services potentially degrading or becoming unavailable. Raise your optionality by e.g. adding abstraction layers, making sure you can switch to other platforms if necessary.
• A mindset of Pragmatic Agility can help to stay on top of things in times of known and unknown unknowns.

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